IMD Enhances Long-Term Weather Forecasting

Long-Term Weather Forecasting System by IMD

1. Institutional Framework:

   • Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) operates under the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES).

2. Methodology:

   • Since 2021, IMD has adopted an advanced Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach for long-term forecasting.
   • This has resulted in a significant improvement in forecast accuracy, with all forecasts issued since 2021 remaining within error margins.

3. Forecast Accuracy:

   • Average absolute error for long-term rainfall forecasts from 2021-2025 is 2.2%.
   • Historical data shows that the only instance of forecast error exceeding 10% occurred in 2019 (14% error).
   • Yearly breakdown of actual rainfall versus forecasts from 2015 to 2025 indicates consistent improvements.

4. Forecast Data:

   • 2021-2025 Phase I Forecast Average Absolute Error: 3.1%
   • 2021-2025 Phase II Forecast Average Absolute Error: 2.2%
   • Comparison with 2016-2020 shows a reduction from 7.8% to 2.2% in average absolute error.

5. Enhanced Forecasting Capabilities:

   • The MME system utilizes coupled dynamic climate models, reducing uncertainties associated with individual models.
   • Improved representation of large-scale climate factors like El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) enhances forecast stability.

6. Government Initiatives:

   • The government has implemented measures to improve long-term forecasting and prediction of extreme weather events, including:
     • Adoption of advanced MME and coupled dynamic climate models.
     • Continuous upgrades to numerical weather prediction models through improved physics, high spatial resolution, and advanced data techniques.
     • Expansion of national observation networks with Doppler Weather Radars, Automatic Weather Stations, and more.

7. Mission Monsoon:

   • A focus on modernizing meteorological observation systems, enhancing capabilities through technology like high-performance computing and AI/machine learning-based forecasting tools.

8. Satellite Observations:

   • Expansion of satellite-based observations through indigenous weather satellites, integrating data into numerical models for improved accuracy.

9. Dissemination of Weather Information:

   • Coordination between central and state agencies to disseminate forecasts and warnings through various platforms (mobile apps, web portals, SMS, media).

10. Uniform Implementation:

    • The measures are uniformly applicable across all states and Union Territories without state-specific allocation.

11. Official Communication:

    • Information provided by Dr. Jitendra Singh, Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Earth Sciences, in a written response in Lok Sabha.

This summary highlights the advancements and strategic initiatives taken by the IMD to enhance the accuracy of long-term weather forecasting in India, reflecting significant data and government policy frameworks.